30 October 2013

Flabbergasted – The Hinkley Point Contract

This is copied from the website of  Liberum Capital, an independant investment bank

http://www.liberumcapital.com/pdf/ULkWtp00.pdf

 

Summary

Based on the disclosure so far this looks likely to be an outstanding deal for Edf

and its partners. On a leveraged basis we expect Edf to earn a Return on Equity

(ROE) well in excess of 20% and possibly as high as 35%. We forecast that cash

dividends of between £65bn to £80bn should be payable during the life of the Cfd.

Note that paying these dividends would still allow Edf to pay off all construction

debt within the term of the Cfd. When the station commissions in 2023 the strike

price will likely be above £121/MWh. For this to be competitive with fossil fuels,

the gas price will need to have increased by at least 130% from today’s levels.

Annual PBT should total c.£1bn (2013 money) pa at commissioning

(assuming 65% leverage) which compares to a total of £2.1bn EBIT reported

by the big six UK energy suppliers in 2012 for their generation businesses.

Once again, the UK government is taking a massive bet that fossil fuel prices

will be extremely high in the future. If that bet proves to be wrong then this

contract will look economically insane when HPC commissions. We are frankly

staggered that the UK government thinks it is appropriate to take such a bet and

under-write the economics of any power station that costs £5m per MW and

takes 9 years to build.

 

Introduction:

We have been a bit pre-occupied so have not had the opportunity to comment

on last weeks signing of the Heads of Terms agreement between Edf and the

UK government to build twin 1,600MW rectors at Hinkley Point. But having

considered the known terms of the deal, we are flabbergasted that the UK

government has committed future generations of consumers to the costs

that will flow from this deal. The full terms of the contract has not been released

so our modelling of the project necessarily contains a number of assumption

- which we will outline later. But the known facts are as follows:

Construction costs:

£8bn per reactor, or £5m per MW. As far as we can see this makes Hinkley

Point the most expensive power station in the world (excluding hydro

schemes) on a per MW basis. By way of contrast, for the cost of £16bn for

the 3,200MW to be built the UK could build 27,000MW ofnew CCGT gas

fired power stations solving the ‘energy crunch’ for a generation.

Construction period:

Edf has been given an astonishing 9 years to complete the construction.

This makes Hinkley Point both the most expensive power station in the world

and also the plant with the longest construction period.

Construction Risk:

The UK government are claiming that Edf are taking the construction risk.

But with an £8bn build cost, and a 9 year construction program, Edf have

built in so much fat into the project that a cost / time over-run should be

near impossible.

Strike Price:

Edf will receive £92.50 per MWh in 2012 prices. But with construction not due

to complete until 2023. Edf can expect an actual revenue of around

£121per MWh once the station opens

Strike Price indexing:

Perhaps the extraordinary feature of the deal is the 35 year inflation

indexing of the strike price. Nuclear stations have a very high revenue

to operating cost ratios. By granting full indexing of the revenue line

Edf are handed the opportunity to earn extra-ordinary returns as the

project matures.

Cdf length:

Has been set at 35 years. This means that the full economics of the

reactors will be recovered within the first 35 years when the stations

have an 60 year expected life span.

Rate of Return:

Edf have stated that they can expect to earn a 10% Project IRR. This suggests

10% IRR on an unlevered basis. Edf also suggest that they may seek 65%

non recourse financing which, on our numbers, suggests a 14.5% equity IRR

 

This Article was written by Tom Burke

The original article can be found here

SMOKE AND MIRRORS 21/10/2013

There is only one decision that really matters about future nuclear reactor building in Britain and that has not yet been taken. From the amount of media hoopla surrounding the announcement on Hinkley C you could be forgiven for thinking something monumental had occurred. In fact, if we did not live in the perpetual present  of the 24/7 news cycle,  you might remember that this was the third or fourth time ( I forget which myself ) this same ‘deal’ has been announced as preventing us from freezing in the dark.

That decision is EDF’s decision to order the major components for the reactors at Hinkley. This is called the final investment decision. It is the point at which the contracts for some hugely expensive pieces of kit will be signed. After this point the cost of not going ahead becomes very large.

EDF promised us this decision in 2011 and then again at the beginning of this year. Then it was postponed to an unspecified time next year. Until this is done, no deal has actually been made with anyone for anything. All that happened on Monday was simply that the price the British government will make consumers pay for the output from Hinkley C was announced.

As far as I can see the combination of Osborne and Davey’s announcements adds up to a lot less than meets the eye.  It certainly  props up the political narrative that the government is making the economy work.  It proclaims that Britain is open for business an now attractive place  for inward investors. But it is much less clear what it does for British energy and climate security.

Put more bluntly, this is whole farrago is primarily about managing the headlines not the country. If you look behind the smoke and mirrors this is what has actually happened:-                                

  • Two Chinese companies will take a minority stake in EDF’s proposed nuclear power station at Hinkley point. It is not clear when exactly they will do so. If they are wise, not until after it has been built.
  • At some future point Chinese companies may be allowed to take a majority stake in other nuclear power stations if they are built. Since, under the current levy control cap there is no money even to build the second EDF station at Sizewell let alone any future Chinese stations this may not amount to much of a promise.
  • EDF have already announced that they do not expect the civil engineering work to begin at Hinkley before the middle of 2015. This is because they are very unlikely to make their final investment decision until after the British government has received state aids clearance for the subsidies for Hinkley C. Getting this clearance could take some time.
  • It has already become clear that there will only be limited scope for British companies to supply the high value components for Hinkley The GMB are already fretting about this. Of the 90 contract to be let, only 2 are for marine and civil engineering works which could well go to British companies. The other 88 are for manufacturing and erection for which few British companies are nuclear qualified.
  • The Prime Minister proudly boasted that this would create 25,000 jobs. He forgot to mention that only 900 of them will be permanent and that most of the high value jobs will be abroad. He also forgot to mention that the cost per job is over £600,000. This compares rather badly with the 320,000 jobs that could be created spending the same amount on really delivering energy efficiency improvements for British energy consumers.
  • The £92/MWh price announced by Ed Davey is about double the current wholesale price of electricity. The wholesale price is the main component of energy bills. In order to set that price Davey has had to guess the wholesale price of electricity in 2058 since the contract with EDF will last until then.
  • This is courageous. It means that if wholesale prices fall, British consumers will lose out substantially. Wholesale prices for electricity in Germany have fallen about 30% in the past 12 months.
  • On the most optimistic assumptions there will be no electricity from Hinkley before 2023.

In summary this, not quite a deal yet, does nothing to reduce energy bills now, will not help to keep the lights on this winter and offers few high-value jobs for Britons. It is another disgraceful example of profit being privatised and risk being socialised. If Hinkley C does actually go ahead it will be one of the most expensive political face saving crusades ever.

 

The likelihood that any further nuclear power stations will be built after Hinkley C is vanishingly small. The investment community is already writing the obituary of utility  business models based on large centralised generators of any kind. The cost of capital is much more likely to go up than the wholesale price of electricity. Mrs Thatcher proposed 10GW of nuclear and got 1GW. The Coalition is proposing 16GW and may get 3.2GW which would be double the percentage she managed. A victory of sorts I suppose

The next TASC Committee meeting is due to be held on Tuesday the 29th of October at 7-00pm at Leiston Community Centre. (see the events page for more details). Supporters are welcome to come and join in the meeting.
 
TASC has two events planned for November to which anyone who is interested in the impact of the proposed Sizewell C is invited. If Sizewell C goes ahead, it is going to have a huge effect on all our lives, and TASC believes that local people deserve to know what the plans entail..
 
Firstly, we are holding a fundraising Coffee morning and Sale on Saturday the 9th of November from 10am to Noon at Leiston Community Centre. (see the events page for more details).
There will stalls with Books, Bric a Brac, Clothes, Homemade Cakes, Produce and a prize Draw.
We will have information about many of the issues which local people have voiced concerns over - for example, Emergency Planning, Coastal Erosion and the storage of nuclear waste on site.People are welcome to come along and have a coffee and a chat about Sizewell C.
 
Our second November event is a Public Meeting which is being held on Thursday the14th of November at 7.30 pm in Yoxford Village Hall. Local speakers will give talks and lead discussions on a variety of issues about Sizewell C. (see events page for more details)   
 
 

TOGETHER AGAINST SIZEWELL C (TASC) CALLS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF PUBLIC MEETINGS TO UNITE OPPOSITION TO THE ‘ENVIRONMENTAL VANDALISM’ THAT WILL RESULT FROM BUILDING SIZEWELL C

TASC is a recently formed organisation comprised of individuals and groups opposed to the building of Sizewell C for a wide variety of reasons. TASC brings together like-minded people who have deeply held concerns that Sizewell C would have a detrimental effect on the community in this very rural area of East Suffolk much of which is located in an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty.

The group members have concerns about the environment, the urbanisation of the area, transport, health, tourism and the problems of nuclear waste disposal. The purpose of the organisation is to provide balance to the somewhat one-sided views that are currently being expressed by EDF, the Councils and Parliamentary representatives through the Consultation Process.